Note: This is an automated translation (using DeepL) of the original German article.

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Mathematical model determines vaccine requirements until October ‘22 for safe & efficient planning

When stocking up on vaccine, two extremes must be avoided. On the one hand, there must be enough vaccine in stock so that all upcoming vaccinations can be carried out - the vaccine must not run out. On the other hand, the goal is to avoid vaccine doses expiring and having to be disposed of - in other words, money being wasted. Both situations should be identified with enough lead time so that either vaccine can be replenished or surplus vaccine can be dispensed long enough (without then expiring shortly after arrival on site).

To ensure this, DEXHELPP in cooperation with the Vienna University of Technology and dwh GmbH developed a corresponding calculation model on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection.

With this model, three scenarios were calculated (full vaccination, high vaccination, normal vaccination; see notes) to determine the concrete vaccine demand in Austria. In all three scenarios, it is assumed that 95% of those vaccinated for the first time will pick up the 2nd prick, and of these, 95% will also pick up the 3rd prick. Any recommendation for a further (fourth) vaccination is not taken into account.

Results

With these assumptions, two specific questions regarding the need until October 1, 2022 were investigated and answered:

1. How many administered vaccinations per month can be expected in total through fall (ignoring recommendation for another 4th vaccination)?
   Expect 2.325 million doses to 3 million doses in total by Oct. 1. That is an average of 300,000 - 400,000 doses per month (roughly rounded up). However, 70-80% of these are 3rd stings. However, according to the current situation, these assumptions may be greatly underestimated.
2. How many vaccinations do the vaccine stocks have to be sufficient for over the summer?
   Until 1.10. a maximum of 6.25 million doses are necessary (with 1st-3rd sting). This corresponds to a maximum of 800,000 doses per month on average.

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Notes:

• Assumption for “full vaccination”: all vaccineable age groups at 100% initial vaccination.
• Assumption for “high vaccination”: compulsory vaccination from 18 onwards
• Assumption for “normal vaccination”: close to reality, but very optimistic.